A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
